DIMACS Working Group on Mathematical Sciences Methods for the Study of Deliberate Releases of Biological Agents and their Consequences

First meeting, March 22 - 23, 2002
DIMACS Center, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ

Organizers:

Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Cornell University, cc32@cornell.edu

Fred Roberts, Rutgers University, froberts@dimacs.rutgers.edu

Working Group Program:

March 22:

8:00 - 8:50	Breakfast and Registration


8:50 - 9:10	Opening Remarks

		Fred Roberts
		Director of DIMACS and co-Chair of meeting

		James Flanagan
		Vice President for Research, Rutgers University

		John Tesoriero
		Executive Director, NJ Commission on Science and 
                  Technology

		Carlos Castillo-Chavez
		Cornell University and co-Chair of meeting


Talks: all talks are 15 minutes, with 5 minutes for discussion


Talk Session I (Modeling):


9:10 - 9:30	Ellis McKenzie, NIH
		Making Models Make Sense to Policy-makers

9:30 - 9:50	Peter Merkle, Defense Threat Reduction Agency
		Biological Modeling and Support to Operations

9:50 - 10:10	John Glasser, CDC
		(Joint presentation with M. Reynolds, M.I. Meltzer, 
                   B. Schwartz, J.M. Lane, S.O. Foster, 
                   J.D. Millar and W.A. Orenstein)
		Optimal Response to Deliberate Reintroduction of
		  Smallpox: Design via Mathematical Modeling

10:10 - 10:30	Lone Simonsen, National Institute of Allergy and 
                   Infectious Diseases (NIAID), NIH
		The Need for Mathematical Models to Make Better
		  Public Health Decisions: A Few Examples from
                  the World of Influenza Pandemic Planning


10:30 - 10:50	BREAK


Talk Session II (Biosurveillance):


10:50 - 11:10	Richard Heffernan, NYC Department of Health
		Syndromic Surveillance of Emergency Department
                  Visits, New York City

11:10 - 11:30	Teresa Hamby, NJ Department of Health & Senior 
                  Services
		Challenges in NJ's Ongoing Surveillance:
		  A Discussion of Current Activities

11:30 - 11:50	Marcello Pagano, Harvard University
		(Joint presentation with Marco Bonetti, 
                  Karen Olson and Kenneth D. Mandl)
		Analyzing Bio-surveillance Data to Increase
                  Vigilance to Bio-terrorism

11:50 - 12:10	Henry Rolka, CDC
		Data Mining in Public Health: Issues and
                  Challenges

12:10 - 12:30	David Madigan, Rutgers University
		Some Aspects of Adverse Events Detection


12:30 - 1:30	LUNCH


Talk Session III (Biosurveillance, continued):


1:30 - 1:50	Jim Koopman, University of Michigan
		Basing Surveillance On Infection Transmission
                  System Theory Rather Than Sampling Theory

1:50 - 2:10	Ira B. Schwartz, Naval Research Laboratory
		Mathematical Problems in Biological and
                  Chemical Sensors


Talk Session IV (Mathematical Sciences Tools and Approaches):


2:10 - 2:30	Gary Strong, NSF
		The Role of Computer Science in the Defense
                  Against Bioterrorism

2:30 - 2:50	Edward Kaplan, Yale University
		(Joint presentation with David Craft and 
                   Larry Wein)
		Modeling Bioterror Response Logistics: The Case
                  of Smallpox

2:50 - 3:10	Karl Hadeler, University of Tuebingen
		The Role of Migration and Contact Distributions
                  in the Spread of Deliberately Released
                  Infectious Agents

3:10 - 3:30	Simon Levin, Princeton University
		  Mathematical Challenges Posed by Bioterrorism

3:30 - 3:50	Mac Hyman, Los Alamos National Lab
		Comparing and Combining Agent Based and 
		  Differential Equation Models for the Spread
                  of Epidemics


3:50 - 4:10	BREAK


4:10 - 6:30	Discussion Group Session I
		Discussion groups meet separately


Discussion Groups:

The meeting will start with short talks on Friday morning. By 
late afternoon, we plan to break into "brainstorming groups" 
to discuss the role of methods of the mathematical sciences in 
the defense against bioterrorist attacks. The groups will 
continue their discussions on Saturday morning, drafting brief 
"white papers" on their topic. We will then ask each group to 
summarize their conclusions to the entire meeting.


Discussion Group List: Group Topics and Leaders:


Modeling Control
Leader: Ellis McKenzie 
Location: CoRE B (3rd Floor, CoRE 305)


Design of Isolation and Vaccination Strategies via Mathematical 
  Modeling
Leader: John Glasser
Location: Seminar Room (4th Floor, CoRE 431)


Modeling and Evaluating Bioterrorism Emergency Response Logistics
Leader: Ed Kaplan
Location: Conference Room (4th Floor, CoRE 433)


Biosurveillance
Leader: Marcello Pagano
Location: CoRE A (3rd Floor, CoRE 301)


Modeling Transmission Dynamics with Agent-Based and Differential
   Equations Models
Leader: Mac Hyman
Location: CAIP 601 (6th Floor, CoRE)


Challenges for Computer Science
Leader: Fred Roberts
Location: CAIP 626 (6th Floor, CoRE)


Agriculture and Food Supply
Leader: Simon Levin
Location: CAIP 726 (7th Floor, CoRE)


Evolution
Leader: James Koopman
Location: Office 404 (4th Floor, CoRE)


6:30		Reception at DIMACS


7:15		Banquet at DIMACS


March 23:


8:00 - 8:40	Breakfast


Talk Session V (Networks, Ideologies, Game Theory, 
   Discrete Math):


8:40 - 9:00	David Banks, FDA
		Risk Analysis and Game Theory

9:00 - 9:20	Alun L. Lloyd, Institute for Advanced Study
		(Joint presentation with Ira Schwartz, Naval 
                  Research Lab and Lora Billings, Montclair 
                  State University and NRL)
		Disease Spread on Networks: Analogies Between
                  Biological and Computer Viruses

9:20 - 9:40	Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Cornell University
		Core Groups, Cooperative Behavior and Peer
                  Pressure: The Dynamics of Fanaticism by
                  Ultra-ideologically Driven Individuals

9:40 - 10:00	Fred S. Roberts, DIMACS, Rutgers University
		Challenges for Discrete Mathematics and
                  Theoretical Computer Science


10:00 - 10:15	Break


10:15 - 12:15	Discussion Group Session II


Discussion groups meet, prepare drafts of white papers and
prepare presentations to the full group. Same meeting rooms
as before.


12:15 - 1:15	LUNCH


1:15 - 4:00	Plenary Session: Discussion Group Presentations


Each group will have 10 minutes to present its draft white 
paper and then there will be 10 minutes for discussion.


4:00 - 4:05	Closing Remarks
		Conference Chairs

		Discussion of followup meeting(s) and projects

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