DIMACS Working Group on Modeling Social Responses to Bio-terrorism Involving Infectious Agents

May 29 - 30, 2003
DIMACS Center, CoRE Building, Rutgers University

Organizers:

John Glasser, CDC, jwg3@cdc.gov

Ellis McKenzie, NIH, McKenzel@mail.nih.gov

Fred Roberts, Rutgers University, froberts@dimacs.rutgers.edu

Workshop Program:

Thursday, May 29, 2003


 9:00 - 10:00	Breakfast and Registration

10:00 - 10:10	Welcome and Opening Remarks	
                Ellis McKenzie, NIH and Fred Roberts, Director of DIMACS

10:10 - 10:30   Human Behavior In Crises: Similarities and 
                Differences in a Bio-Terrorism Occasion.
                Enrico L Quarantelli, University of Delaware

10:30 - 10:40   Discussion

10:40 - 11:00   Infectious Disease Modeling: Why is Defense
                Intelligence Interested?
                Jim Kvach, AFMIC

11:00 - 11:10   Discussion

11:10 - 11:30   Break

11:30 - 11:50   Communicating with the Public about Public 
                Health Preparedness
                Sarah Roberts, NYC Dept. of Health

11:50 - 12:00   Discussion

12:00 - 12:20   Modeling Lessons Learned from the SARS Outbreak
                Paul Dreyer, RAND Corp

12:20 - 12:30   Discussion

12:30 - 12:50   Risk Communication Aspects of Bioterrorism 
                Preparedness and Response
                Peter Sandman, Psandman.com

12:50 -  1:00   Discussion

 1:00 -  2:00   Lunch and Discussion

 2:00 -  2:20   How to Vaccinate the Public against Panic
                Monica Schoch-Spana, Johns Hopkins

 2:20 -  2:30   Discussion

 2:30 -  2:50   Perceptions of probabilities
                Martin Meltzer, CDC

 2:50 -  3:00   Discussion

 3:00 -  3:20   Modeling Human Response to a Chemical Weapons Accident
                John Sorenson, Oak Ridge

 3:20 -  3:30   Discussion

 3:30 -  3:50   Freeze, Fight, or Flee: Behavioral Choices in a Natural
                Plague Outbreak as a Surrogate for a Bioterrorist Event
                John F. Heinbokel and P. Jeffrey Potash, CIESD

 3:50 -  4:00   Discussion

 4:00 -  4:20   How many is too many or too few in a terrorist group?
                Martin Shubik, Yale University

 4:20 -  4:30   Discussion
  
 4:30 -  4:50   Break

 4:50 -  6:15   Discussion Groups

 6:15 -  7:00   Reception

 7:00 -  8:30   Banquet

Friday, May 30, 2003

 8:30 -  9:00   Breakfast and Registration

 9:00 -  9:20   A Simple Model for Toronto's SARS Outbreak
                Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Cornell/Los Alamos/Arizona
 
 9:20 -  9:30   Discussion

 9:30 -  9:50   Roles of Statistical Science and Mathematical 
                Modeling in the Effort to Control SARS
                Ping Yan, Health Canada
 
 9:50 - 10:00   Discussion

10:00 - 10:20   Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome via Isolation 
                of Infectious People or Quarantine of Those Whom They May
                Have Exposed: Evaluation via Mathematical Modeling
                John Glasser, M. Reynolds, B. Schwartz, and M.S. Cetron, CDC 

10:20 - 10:30   Discussion

10:30 - 10:50	Break

10:50 - 11:10   Leadership and Bioterrorism: Problems of Elite 
                Panic and Public Communication
                Lee Clarke, Rutgers Sociology 

11:10 - 11:20   Discussion 

11:20 - 11:40   Dominance Principles in Social Network Dynamics and Terrorism
                Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, GMU

11:40 - 11:50   Discussion

11:50 - 12:10   Bioterrorism and EpiSims
                Stephen Eubank,Los Alamos National Lab

12:10 - 12:20   Discussion

12:20 -  1:20   Lunch and Discussion

 1:20 -  1:40   Prophylactic vs. Response Strategies for Bioterrorist  
                Threats: Modeling the Problem in PS-I
                Ian Lustick, Penn 

 1:40 -  1:50   Discussion

 1:50  - 3:00   Discussion Groups

  
 3:00 -  3:20   Break

 3:20 -  4:40   Presentations by Discussion Groups; recommendations; closing

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